In terms of risk-adjusted returns over the next 5 years, 70% of the UBS Annual Reserve Manager Survey sample sees government bonds as the winners, followed by developed market equities and gold.
Forty central banks around the world manage assets of more than $15 trillion USD, roughly half of global reserves. This is the panel of the Ubs Annual Reserve Manager Survey, the annual survey conducted by UBS Asset Management which represents one of the most awaited moments by managers of central bank reserves and sovereign wealth funds. From where interesting food for thought emerged, starting with 66% of those interviewed who believed an economic soft landing is the most likely scenario. 71%, however, expect US headline inflation to be in the 2-3% range in 2025 while more than half of the sample sees Fed policy rates positioned between 3% and 4% in 2025.
THE MAIN DANGER IS GEOPOLITICS
Regarding the risks, the main one remains the geopolitics while the maintenance of public debt is growing: on the contrary, neither climate change nor general financial stability seem to cause concern. Half of the interviewees believe that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will end only after 2026, but the majority does not consider a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia possible in the next five years. Fears are growing about the use of foreign exchange reserves as a strategic weapon…
** This article was written by FinanceLounge