74% of respondents view the US presidential election as medium to high risk and many fear that inflation could rise again and influence monetary policy
Inflation is returning to the target required by Central banks, even in the last tail blows, and the economic slowdown was less sharp than expected. In this context, the idea of a soft landing is gaining ground and 73% of the strategists interviewed for a survey Natixis Investment Managers believe that the risk of a global recession is zero (10%) or low (63%). General uncertainty remains, with 74% of respondents viewing the US presidential election as a medium (37%) or high (37%) risk in the second half (77% say the election is important for markets). 60% believe the US elections are more likely to affect the market than support it, but 30% think they are more of a distraction than a signal for the markets.
FEAR OF INFLATION
Among the main fears of statesman interviewed by Natixis (30 experts, including 25 representatives of 11 affiliated asset managers, 4 representatives of Natixis Investment Managers Solutions and one representative of Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking) there are certaininflationfollowed by the “politicization” of fed when he decides to cut rates (47%). Only 7% of the sample believes the Federal Reserve will meet its target by the end of the year and 40% fear a surprise could halt the market rally. 77% fear that rates will remain higher for a long time, 70% expect two rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the second half of the year, 67% expect two cuts by the Bank of ‘England (BoE) while only 37% expect the same in the United States…
** This article was written by FinanceLounge