MS AmlinLloyd’s global re/insurer, looking forward to the era of Atlantic storm many above average, one of the strongest for many years.
According to MS Amlin climate scientist, who analyzed the opinion of 24 research groups, private companies, universities and government agencies, the consensus shows 23 named hurricanes, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. For comparison, the 2023 season saw 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 hurricanes.
Accumulated cyclonic intensity (ACE), which measures hurricane activity by comparing the number, intensity and duration of named storms, will reach 204, above the long-term average of 123.
There are two main factors that will affect the intensity of hurricanes: the development of La Niña in the Pacific and the maintenance of high temperature and extreme temperatures in the North Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.
Ed Pope, a geoscientist with MS Amlin’s Exposure Management team, said “Unfortunately, all forecasts point to an active hurricane season in 2024, with some agencies predicting record levels. It is important to point out that for several months now there has been an idea of what kind of time is waiting for us. Even with the hurricane activity near the border that the most optimistic forecast shows, we will still see a season above the average of recent years.”
Simon Morgan, property manager at MS Amlin, said that since the 1990s “Hurricane-related economic losses have increased by $22 billion annually due to population growth and coastal development. We expect the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes to increase further in the coming years due to climate change.” Morgan emphasized that “The insurance sector can help people and companies to get into the damages caused by the weather only if the prices clearly reflect the risks associated with the destructive hurricanes during the summer of the world. Therefore, investment in increasingly sophisticated models and research will be necessary if the sector is to better understand the risks of natural disasters and properly price them.”